Milk Monitor 3 July 2025: More confusion

Sweet whey quoted market = unchanged. Sweet whey actual market = unchanged (+€50)

Skim Milk quoted and actual market = Down €20 (- 0.8%)

Whey quoted unchanged for third successive week, skim has now shed €80 in a month. Supply difficulties remain in whey as previously moaned about, but coconut and refined palm oil have both come off their highs. Palm is probably a genuine fall, but coconut looks worryingly like a correction to the consistent disease-driven climb

The soya market is baffling, with soy oil prices hiking on US moisture level concerns and biofuel mandates and ignoring a monumental increase in Brazilian soya acreage for the 2026 harvest. 

Sterling continues to disappoint despite the base rate remaining unchanged, but the sluggish economy dominates, with eyes on unemployment rising as April’s employer taxes start to bite.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 07801 308054 or greg@bdc-agri.com

Milk Monitor 27 June 2025: Hidden dip

Yet again, the published market conspires against my considered opinion, as we see an alleged and whopping 1.5% come out of skim milk prices, down €40 to €2390, but there’s still the anomaly with edible grade, which fell €50 to a €10 discount to feed grade! But we are in the foothills of the silly season of July and first half August, so I see this drop as an adjustment rather than a precipice, and changing market sentiment in August is rumoured. Skim milk production has started its annual decrease, following the trend of the last two years post Ukraine, which usually supports a late summer rally.

Sweet whey quoted unchanged, but still the same market conditions exist, with a €70 differential between Brittany and Netherlands.

Not much else going on, crude oil is back down to the old world order after the presidential profanity established a Middle East ceasefire. Soya is on a mild down track after better rainfall for the Midwest, but nowhere near tracking crude oil vis à vis biofuel, and ditto palm oil. Sterling continues to underwhelm global investors.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 07801 308054 or greg@bdc-agri.com

Greg's Milk Monitor 20 June 2025: Chinese Whispers

Whey is down €10, skim down €20. While the latter is a genuine supply:demand adjustment, the former is a downright lie, as the reality of purchase price in France is now €70 over published Dutch levels, equal to the haulage differential between Holland and Brittany.

China has been raised again, but in three different markets; some say US product is so incredibly cheap that EU whey doesn’t get a look-in, others that Austria is exporting whey east, and this week’s star story, that Byelorussia is the runaway cheapest seller in China. Whilst one swallow doesn’t make a summer, one container does make a market, so who knows, all three single container sales may be true.

Skim has adjusted to genuine market dynamics, as we see CMR orders decline as peak spring milk supply increase, but it will probably be the other side of the August market lull before we see any seismic change.

Other markets are firm, given current geopolitics. Crude oil is now unsurprisingly 20% up on the month, but still 10% lower year-on-year, which seems strange given the relative stability then compared to the actual firefight now happening. Soy oil enjoyed one limit-up session on Friday 13th and close to a second early this week, rising from 46 cents to near 55 cents, where it remains. Palm oil got in on the action too, now up to 4150 ringitts from 3700 in May. 

Sterling isn’t helping out either, now just sub €1.17 and unlikely to excite while jobless and GDP figures disappoint and inflation remaining high isn’t stoking interest rate rise speculation.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 07801 308054 or greg@bdc-agri.com