Greg's Milk Monitor 25 April 2025: More confusion

There’s more conflict than clarity in milk powder markets, in a week that saw potentially 245% tariffs being slapped on by China, and Donald Trump signalling he’d like talks about a trade deal.

Sweet whey climbed €10 against expectations, and skim fell by the same amount. There might be sense in these moves, as the Chinese have beaten a path to the European door to escape whatever tariff the White House decides to apply this week, lifting prices, but US processors have signalled that they will slash and burn prices to keep the S E Asian market, so the US market remains in free fall (the graph on shows the Q1 prices, before ‘Liberation Day’ on 3rd April)

Even if tariffs have a neutral effect on sweet whey, demand for edible whey protein concentrate is still increasing, diverting ever greater quantities for processing and limiting the supply to the feed sector. This is double-edged as far as CMRs are concerned, as although is might life whey prices, the chronic shortage of WPC is easing, and hopefully price with it. Considering WPC was developed as a cheap alternative to skim milk protein, but now commands a €300 premium, it seem unsustainable at the price level, but on the other hand, WPC has revalued itself as the go-to source for increasingly popular dairy protein only CMRs.

Skim has however returned to an oversupply situation, the flip side of withholding material to force the market higher. Downgrades are more freely available so we could see further declines into the later spring. But taking the whole basket of ingredients, and the unpredictable global political landscape, a wholesale slide in values does not look at all imminent, whilst increase looks more probable.

Crude oil is back on the downside, as OPEC members break ranks to flood the market, but soyabean oil is back up to nigh on 50 cents, nearly 20% higher over the last month. Palm oil has been revalued as the cheapest cooking medium and has turned upwards after the losses this week.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 598657 or greg@bdc-agri.com

Greg's Milk Monitor 19 April 2025: Trade War Confusion

Sweet whey falls €10 again, but SMP holds onto unchanged status, as feed grade unbelievably commands a €60 premium over edible grade! This extremely unusual situation has been cause by a complete slump in demand from the consumer market, presumably prompted by Tariffgate, whilst feed demand is unstoppable into what used to be a spring slump. 

Sweet whey is at least falling now, fuelled conversely by food demand, and is genuinely more available. The US market is still falling like a stone from the unprecedented levels in reached at year end, almost definitely fuelled by the tariff war. 

WPC is as rare as hen’s teeth still, with no end in sight for the €300 premium over skim milk powder, the very product it was invented to discount. Wheat gluten remains the wrong side of the supply/demand balance with a major factory still largely out of action. The cocount oil trajectory is still stratospheric, so taking all ingredients into account, there shouldn't be a widening of price differential between skim and whey based CMRs.

Tariffgate has provided trader heaven, which it was probably meant to, given ‘the deal’ has replaced global diplomacy since January 20th. Crude oil bounced off $59/barrel last week, and is now 8% up on the week, as is soybean oil, while palm oil dived by the same amount, if anyone can work that out?!

Oh well, let’s knock off for Easter and wait and see what the next week of this chaotic year brings. Happy Easter all.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 598657 or greg@bdc-agri.com

Greg's Milk Monitor 11 April 2025: Immolation Day

Trump’s so called ‘Liberation Day’ has caused chaos in many markets, but it looks like milk powders have been spared, at least for the time being. The largest swing factor has been the sterling:euro exchange rate, as the pound has lost 6% of value in a fortnight, forced down by economic factors unrelated to Tariffgate. 

Sweet whey has shed €20 while skim milk has risen €10, and the word is that real values, although still higher than stated, are easing slightly for whey, if not for skim, where edible quality is now actually cheaper than feed grade. This has come about because demand in the edible sector has been sluggish at best, whilst feed sales have been booming for over four months. This does now seem to be slowing, and order times have now reduced to four weeks.

Prices and supply are still high and tight for WPC, hydrolysed gluten and fat filled whey, and coconut prices have breached €2800, from €1800 a year ago.

The soya complex dropped off after 2nd April, but bounced before the big backtrack on tariffs to levels higher than previously, which is counterintuitive given that the South American crop can supply all China needs, circumventing 125% tariffs. Palm oil has dropped, though, but on its own fundamentals.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 598657 or greg@bdc-agri.com