Greg's Milk Monitor 19 April 2025: Trade War Confusion

Sweet whey falls €10 again, but SMP holds onto unchanged status, as feed grade unbelievably commands a €60 premium over edible grade! This extremely unusual situation has been cause by a complete slump in demand from the consumer market, presumably prompted by Tariffgate, whilst feed demand is unstoppable into what used to be a spring slump. 

Sweet whey is at least falling now, fuelled conversely by food demand, and is genuinely more available. The US market is still falling like a stone from the unprecedented levels in reached at year end, almost definitely fuelled by the tariff war. 

WPC is as rare as hen’s teeth still, with no end in sight for the €300 premium over skim milk powder, the very product it was invented to discount. Wheat gluten remains the wrong side of the supply/demand balance with a major factory still largely out of action. The cocount oil trajectory is still stratospheric, so taking all ingredients into account, there shouldn't be a widening of price differential between skim and whey based CMRs.

Tariffgate has provided trader heaven, which it was probably meant to, given ‘the deal’ has replaced global diplomacy since January 20th. Crude oil bounced off $59/barrel last week, and is now 8% up on the week, as is soybean oil, while palm oil dived by the same amount, if anyone can work that out?!

Oh well, let’s knock off for Easter and wait and see what the next week of this chaotic year brings. Happy Easter all.

BDC agri is the UK broker for Lacto Production milk and whey powder products.

For further information and prices, contact Greg Dunn on 01206 598657 or greg@bdc-agri.com